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The
world headquarters for the study of complex systems is only forty
miles up the road from where I live outside of Albuquerque, New
Mexico, at a place called The Santa Fe Institute.
One
afternoon after several weeks of letters and phone calls to various
Nobel laureates, none of whom were particularly interested in
talking about social marketing, I drove up there to meet with
one of the Institute's leaders and have a look around.
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The
Institute has brought together some of the best and the brightest
scientists in the world. There are physicists, chemists, economists,
biologists, computer scientists and other specialists who have
joined together in an old monastery in the foothills of the Santa
Fe Mountains. These scientists are devoted to creating a new kind
of scientific research community, built around the emerging science
of systems. The Institute seeks to break down barriers between
traditional scientific disciplines. Its mission is to spread ideas
and methodologies to other individuals and institutes and encourage
the practical applications of its theoretical research. Most of
the Institute's funding comes from corporations, the Defense Department,
and government run scientific laboratories like Los Alamos down
the road. All are trying to adjust to the end of the cold war
and undertake the mammoth conversion known as technology transfer.
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One
afternoon I had lunch with one of the Directors of the Institute, a
scientist named Richard Palmer. Dr. Palmer is a physicist whose area
of specialty is the structure and properties of glass. But he was in
route later that week to a conference in Washington on what the study
of complex systems could tell economists about the stock market and
global market fluctuations.
I
wanted to see what he had to say about complex systems and if the ideas
and theories this kind of thinking produced were applicable to social
marketing, and making the world a happier and healthier place to live.
I
gave him a social marketer's introduction to teen pregnancy, drug and
alcohol abuse and violence. "What can the study of complex systems
tell us about social problems like these and how to solve them?"
I asked. Dr. Palmer, a reserved man with a pleasant smile and an open
face shifted uncomfortably in his chair. "It isn't what they can
tell us about solving problems," he said, "They can give us
a new way of looking at them, and a new language for speaking about
them. It tells us it's ok not to know an answer. Sometimes there are
no answers, or the answer is a paradox."
Struggle
as we may, we cannot fix a systemic problem by attacking it head on,
he suggested. There is no acheless heel. A problem of the immune system,
for example, cannot be fixed with any one drug. The environment too
is a system. It is a giant system of birth and decay that involves the
conversion of sunlight, water, and gases. There is no simple adjustment
to right it once it's wronged. Our economic system is also complex beyond
the forecast of any computer model, and tied not only to worldwide monetary
fluctuations, but to politics, innovation, the mood of the people and
even the weather.
Different
as all these systems are however, he explained that they have some things
in common. All systems are comprised of a number of relatively simple
actions, which render an extraordinarily complex product. The action
in all systems, really, is in the interaction.
Every
system has agents, I learned. Economic systems have business firms.
Immune systems have viruses. Nervous systems have neurons. Teen pregnancy
has sex and alcohol. Violence has guns, drugs and media and role models
and dysfunctional families. These agents interact on the basis of some
very simple rules that lead to some very complex behaviors.
Because
the whole does not equal the sum of its parts, studying the parts alone
will not tell us what we need to know to learn how the system works.
Because they do not behave in a linear fashion, systems cannot be explained
by science and reductionist thinking. Because the action is in the interaction,
you do not have a frame of reference you can freeze and easily study.
Studying systems can inspire a scientist to begin to write poetry, rather
than fall back on facts. To use a word that is commonplace at The Santa
Fe Institute, the behavior of systems might best be described as "chaotic."
Being
the advertising man that I am, I found this word "chaotic"
especially appealing. And I immediately began a search to see if what
we knew about chaos could help us understand how to bring about social
change. I re-read Fritjof Capra's Turning Point and his new book, Web
of Life. I read Margarete Wheatley's book, Leadership and The New Science.
I even read The Lost World by Michael Crichton, and recently saw the
movie.
The
Lost World is a work of fiction based on some real life facts and institutions,
like the Santa Fe Institute. The book opens with Ian Malcolm, the scientist
played in the movie by Jeff Goldbloom, giving a lecture to his fellow
scientists on this new field called complex adaptive systems.
Of
crucial importance, the Ian Malcolm character explains, "is the
way complex systems seem to strike a balance between the need for order
and the imperative to change. Complex systems tend to locate themselves
at a place we call "the edge of chaos." We imagine the edge
of chaos as a place where there is enough innovation to keep a living
system vibrant, and enough stability to keep it from collapsing into
anarchy. It is a zone of conflict and upheaval, where the old and the
new are constantly at war."
In the book Ian then goes on to explain how change is a balance between
order and chaos.
"Finding
the balance point must be a delicate matter. If a living system drifts
too close, it risks falling over into incoherence and dissolution; but
if the system moves too far away from the edge, it becomes rigid, frozen
totalitarian. Both conditions lead to extinction. Too much change is
as destructive as too little. Only at the edge of chaos can complex
systems flourish." And only at the edge of chaos, I thought, can
complex systems be changed. I thought of that place on the playground
see-saw, just between up and down.
But
how can a complex system be changed? Clearly changing a systemic problem
demanded neither the strategic strike of an intervention nor the upheaval
of a revolution. It required leverage.
A
lever, of course, is a simple machine. Like the screw, the gear and
the inclined plane, it makes work easier. Dr. John Holland, a MacArthur
genius award winner who spends time each summer at the Santa Fe Institute,
tells us that lever points abound in systems: "We just don't know
where to look for them...it's possible," he says by way of example,
"that a small intervention could make an enormous difference in
solving inter-city problems."
We
need levers large enough to move the world, and we have them. The levers
are us. They are our leaders, our organizations, our creativity and
our illogical mind. Leaders because they possess the power to inspire,
and, by dint of their authority, they cause things to happen. Organizations
because they direct what we pay attention to and how we go about our
work. And our own creativity because that is the illogical leap across
the gap of common wisdom. It is the extra weight on the see-saw, the
sensitive initial condition on which change depends.
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